Obama to take West Virginia?
Friday, October 10th, 2008From Nate Silver at election poll specialists Fivethirtyeight.com:
That’s what American Research Group says; in fact, it gives Obama a rather large, 8-point lead in the Mountaineer State. I’d have to say that I’m very, very skeptical of this one until I see it confirmed by another polling agency; this is exactly the sort of quirky result that ARG is (in)famous for.
Nevertheless, if Obama has a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania - and all of the polls seem to think that he does - that means he’s had to have made at least some progress in the “Pennsyltucky” region in the interior of the state. And if he’s made progress in Pennsyltucky, that probably means he’s made progress in West Virginia. West Virginia - like Pennsylvania - is also a place where the Democrats retain a substantial edge in party identification, and perhaps the economy has really brought Democrats home. Indeed, for the past week or so, just about every poll taken in a Kerry state has shown Obama with a double-digit lead, with the minor exception of Minnesota, where the polling has been erratic.
In any event, there might be some merit in Obama paying a visit to West Virginia - not because it’s quite moved to the point where it’s a swing state but because I think the symbolism of all of it would get him a lot of earned media.”
CNN’s current electoral map is below. Right now, they’re projecting 264 for Obama (ie. safe or leaning); 174 for McCain; and 100 in toss-up (and that doesn’t even include West Virginia which, as you can see below, they put as leaning McCain). The winner is the first to reach 270 electoral votes - so Obama only needs what Chuck Todd might call ‘half an Ohio’:
