Obama's Inauguration Ceremony: in 2 months, 0 days, 10 hours, 16 minutes, 50 seconds
According to Nate Silver at Fivethirtyeight, that is. And he does sort of know what he’s talking about. Nate also warns against trusting the exit polls:
Keith Olbermann and Howard Fineman look at what happened in the campaigns yesterday (clue: John McCain and Sarah Palin talked a lot about coal), and what the McCain camp have to do to win:
And here was the end of Obama’s final speech yesterday, in Virginia, where he spoke to a crowd of 90,000. Fired up, and ready to go:
And here was Jon Stewart’s take on the final days of campaigning:
Yes, you too can be Peter Snow! Or rather: John King. Or Chuck Todd.
TPM’s handy closing times map shows you which states will be called when. Some key times/states (ie when their polls close and they’ll start calling them - UK time) are:
11pm - Indiana, Kentucky
12am - Florida (some), Georgia, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia
12.30am - North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia
1am - lots, including Pennsylvania, Montana, Missouri and North Dakota
2am - lots, including Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Minnesota
3am - several, including Nevada and Iowa
4am - California, Oregon and Washington
5am - Alaska
According to polling guru Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com, the five states to watch are Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado and Nevada. “Essentially all relevant electoral scenarios involve some combination of these five states,” he writes here.
Chuck Todd gives his state-by-state guide here - while MSNBC also has a very useful piece on what to look for as the results start coming in. For example:
“7pm… Pay particular attention to Indiana and Virginia… You can posit to the party-goers that they are in for a Democratic “wave” if NBC News projects that Sen. Barack Obama has won Indiana and Virginia… But if the night begins with a McCain win in Virginia, then it’s shaping up as a longer night than most Democrats expect (read: If you’re a Dem, now’s the time you may want to switch from beer to coffee)…
At 7:30 p.m., North Carolina and Ohio polls close. At the simplest level it’s hard to devise a plausible scenario in which McCain loses Ohio and still manages to win the presidency. Based on recent polling, the current electoral math just doesn’t add up for McCain without a win in Ohio. Similarly, an Obama victory in North Carolina would seem to seal McCain’s fate…
8pm: A McCain win in Pennsylvania would defy expectations. It would also signal polling there at the start of this week was either wrong or outdated. And if polling was wrong there, where else was it wrong?
9pm… Also closing at 9 is Colorado. If the presidential race is still up in the air, the outcome could hinge on Colorado…”
And so on. You get the idea. Highly useful, and I may well just print out a copy to crib on the bus as I head into town for the election night party…
Here was Chucky on Meet The Press this morning:
OK, it’s really all getting too much now… Take a look at the new ad from the Obama team:
From TPM:
“A new round of Zogby polls shows Barack Obama ahead in six states that George W. Bush won twice, with McCain only leading in two out of the eight polled:
• Virginia: Obama 52%, McCain 45%.
• Ohio: Obama 50%, McCain 45%.
• Nevada: Obama 48%, McCain 44%.
• Missouri: Obama 48%, McCain 46%.
• North Carolina: Obama 50%, McCain 46%.
• Florida: Obama 47%, McCain 47% (Obama 47.2%, McCain 46.9%).
• Indiana: McCain 50%, Obama 44%.
• West Virginia: McCain 50%, Obama 40%.
…Meanwhile, the New York Times reports that John McCain and Sarah Palin are spending the vast majority of their remaining time in red states, a sign that they know they are playing on defense.”
He still lives in Delaware! He beats off right-wing nutjobs! He rallies the troops in Virginia!
Laydeezengennelmen, I give you: Joe Biden!
The pundits on Meet The Press talk about the battleground states, and the current electoral map. The money shot, as they say, is 4:12-4:37.
(Note the new drinking game phrase of this election: that John McCain’s story is like a Shakespearean tragedy).
A latest look at where the states stand, with Keith Olbermann and Chuck Todd:
And meanwhile, Obama has overtaken McCain in Georgia. Yes, Georgia.
I never thought I’d hear chants of “USA! USA!” and feel positively about them. I think this is what Bruce Springsteen and others have meant about “taking back” their country:
