Obama's Inauguration Ceremony: in 2 months, 0 days, 12 hours, 22 minutes, 16 seconds
According to Nate Silver at Fivethirtyeight, that is. And he does sort of know what he’s talking about. Nate also warns against trusting the exit polls:
Chris Matthews and Chuck Todd show us what to look for as the results come in. And it’s pretty exciting stuff already - just watch:
(Take a look at our round-up of election night top tips, too)
Barack Obama’s spending the last few days in Bush states, finishing in Indiana. Rachel Maddow takes a look:
Chuck Todd looks at the latest list of battleground states - Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, Montana and North Dakota - as well as the race for House and Senate seats:
Yes, you too can be Peter Snow! Or rather: John King. Or Chuck Todd.
TPM’s handy closing times map shows you which states will be called when. Some key times/states (ie when their polls close and they’ll start calling them - UK time) are:
11pm - Indiana, Kentucky
12am - Florida (some), Georgia, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia
12.30am - North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia
1am - lots, including Pennsylvania, Montana, Missouri and North Dakota
2am - lots, including Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Minnesota
3am - several, including Nevada and Iowa
4am - California, Oregon and Washington
5am - Alaska
According to polling guru Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com, the five states to watch are Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado and Nevada. “Essentially all relevant electoral scenarios involve some combination of these five states,” he writes here.
Chuck Todd gives his state-by-state guide here - while MSNBC also has a very useful piece on what to look for as the results start coming in. For example:
“7pm… Pay particular attention to Indiana and Virginia… You can posit to the party-goers that they are in for a Democratic “wave” if NBC News projects that Sen. Barack Obama has won Indiana and Virginia… But if the night begins with a McCain win in Virginia, then it’s shaping up as a longer night than most Democrats expect (read: If you’re a Dem, now’s the time you may want to switch from beer to coffee)…
At 7:30 p.m., North Carolina and Ohio polls close. At the simplest level it’s hard to devise a plausible scenario in which McCain loses Ohio and still manages to win the presidency. Based on recent polling, the current electoral math just doesn’t add up for McCain without a win in Ohio. Similarly, an Obama victory in North Carolina would seem to seal McCain’s fate…
8pm: A McCain win in Pennsylvania would defy expectations. It would also signal polling there at the start of this week was either wrong or outdated. And if polling was wrong there, where else was it wrong?
9pm… Also closing at 9 is Colorado. If the presidential race is still up in the air, the outcome could hinge on Colorado…”
And so on. You get the idea. Highly useful, and I may well just print out a copy to crib on the bus as I head into town for the election night party…
Here was Chucky on Meet The Press this morning:
Here’s something that should help to ease the troubled minds of those of you still panicking that Obama isn’t going to win. FiveThirtyEight reports this on the subject of early voting (my bolding):
“In the wee hours of this morning, Public Policy Polling released data from Colorado and New Mexico.
The toplines are strong for Obama, giving him leads of 10 and 17 points, respectively in those states.
What’s worse for McCain, however, is that PPP estimates that nearly two-thirds of Coloradans have already cast their ballots, as have 55-60 percent of New Mexicans, with large majorities of those votes going to Barack Obama.
This is backed up to some extent by Michael McDonald’s turnout statistics. In Colorado, the state had already processed approximately 1.3 million ballots as of Thursday, around 60 percent of the total 2004 turnout. In Bernalillo County (Albuquerque), New Mexico (statewide figures are not available), 145,000 ballots had been cast as of Wednesday, equaling 55 percent of 2004’s total.”
Got that? Not only are early voters tending to vote for Obama, but a massive percentage of the electorate has already turned out to vote. Oh, and Colorado and New Mexico are swing states.
Now. Stop worrying. It’s going to be a good day on November 5th. 
Here’s how it’s looking, according to Chuck Todd and his amazing technicolour dream map. Which he’s scribbled on, like a naughty child:
Do you suppose he’ll shave that beard off once the election is over?
…Keith Olbermann takes a look at the polls, and the state of the two campaigns right now:
It’s a game of two halves! John McCain is sick as a parrot! He thinks it’s all over… it is now!
Oh. No. Not that kind football. This kind of football:
