England for Obama

According to Nate Silver at Fivethirtyeight, that is. And he does sort of know what he’s talking about. Nate also warns against trusting the exit polls:

John McCain kept telling us that he hasn’t been voted Miss Congeniality - but Barack Obama certainly has been. The final pre-election poll by Gallup shows that:

Obama’s favorable rating is 62% - the highest that any presidential candidate has registered in Gallup’s final pre-election polls going back to 1992.

Gallup’s new poll also puts Obama at 53% and McCain at 42% among likely voters.

Here was Chucky on Meet The Press this morning:

…on television; while the YouTube video currently has 1,416,160 views. No: 1,416,161. No: 1,416,162.

But did it work? Well, Gallup polled people after the 30-minute advert aired - read their findings below. In short: Obama’s gone up, McCain’s gone down, but not by huge percentage points. So it may not have made a big difference - but in the words of Daily Kos: “It baked the cake”.

“The political landscape could be improving for Barack Obama in the waning days of the campaign. Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Oct. 28-30 shows him with an eight percentage point lead over John McCain among traditional likely voters — 51% to 43% — his largest margin to date using this historical Gallup Poll voter model.

Since Tuesday, McCain’s support among traditional likely voters has dropped by four points (from 47% to 43%), Obama’s has risen by two points (from 49% to 51%), and the percentage of undecided voters has increased from 4% to 6%.

Thursday night’s interviews are the first conducted entirely after Obama’s widely viewed 30-minute prime-time campaign ad, which ran on several television networks Wednesday evening. Obama held a substantial lead over McCain in last night’s polling, however no greater than what Gallup found on Wednesday.

Obama’s current 11-point lead over McCain among all registered voters — 52% to 41% — is up from an eight-point lead in yesterday’s report, and ties his highest advantage on this basis, last recorded 10 days ago.”

Here were the findings from Rasmussen:

Ad Make You More/Less Likely to Vote for Obama?

More Likely: 54%
Less Likely 24%
Among McCain Voters: 8% More Likely
Among Conservatives: 39% More Likely
Among Republicans: 21% More Likely
Among Men: 50% More likely
Among Women: 59% More Likely
Among 65+: 57% More Likely
Among Whites: 50% More Likely

Apparently, one in seven voters are still persuadable. Who are these people?!

…Keith Olbermann takes a look at the polls, and the state of the two campaigns right now:

From TPM:

Some very encouraging - nay, pretty amazing - polling news:

“Barack Obama, the first black major party nominee, is positioned to win the largest share of white voters of any Democrat in more than three decade… 44 percent of non-Hispanic white voters presently support Obama — the highest number for a Democrat since 47 percent of whites backed Jimmy Carter in 1976.

If Obama’s share holds, it would top the 43 percent of white voters who backed Bill Clinton in 1996.”

Now I know we shouldn’t get over-confident - but this is good. All good.

Some brilliant polling figures in - including one showing that three-quarters of first-time voters plan to vote for Obama:

I do love Keith Olbermann, but I do wish he didn’t shout quite so much. Maybe I’m just used to Rachel Maddow these days?

Three instant polls by the major networks - CNN, CBS and Fox - all give the debate to Obama. In CBS’s case, by the largest majority yet: 53 to 22. Woo-hoo!

And now I’m off to bed…