England for Obama

According to Nate Silver at Fivethirtyeight, that is. And he does sort of know what he’s talking about. Nate also warns against trusting the exit polls:

Yes, you too can be Peter Snow! Or rather: John King. Or Chuck Todd.

TPM’s handy closing times map shows you which states will be called when. Some key times/states (ie when their polls close and they’ll start calling them - UK time) are:

11pm - Indiana, Kentucky

12am - Florida (some), Georgia, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia

12.30am - North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia

1am - lots, including Pennsylvania, Montana, Missouri and North Dakota

2am - lots, including Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Minnesota

3am - several, including Nevada and Iowa

4am - California, Oregon and Washington

5am - Alaska

According to polling guru Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com, the five states to watch are Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado and Nevada. “Essentially all relevant electoral scenarios involve some combination of these five states,” he writes here.

Chuck Todd gives his state-by-state guide here - while MSNBC also has a very useful piece on what to look for as the results start coming in. For example:

“7pm… Pay particular attention to Indiana and Virginia… You can posit to the party-goers that they are in for a Democratic “wave” if NBC News projects that Sen. Barack Obama has won Indiana and Virginia… But if the night begins with a McCain win in Virginia, then it’s shaping up as a longer night than most Democrats expect (read: If you’re a Dem, now’s the time you may want to switch from beer to coffee)…

At 7:30 p.m., North Carolina and Ohio polls close. At the simplest level it’s hard to devise a plausible scenario in which McCain loses Ohio and still manages to win the presidency. Based on recent polling, the current electoral math just doesn’t add up for McCain without a win in Ohio. Similarly, an Obama victory in North Carolina would seem to seal McCain’s fate…

8pm: A McCain win in Pennsylvania would defy expectations. It would also signal polling there at the start of this week was either wrong or outdated. And if polling was wrong there, where else was it wrong?

9pm… Also closing at 9 is Colorado. If the presidential race is still up in the air, the outcome could hinge on Colorado…”

And so on. You get the idea. Highly useful, and I may well just print out a copy to crib on the bus as I head into town for the election night party…

Click below for some brilliant photos from Obama’s rally yesterday in Pennsylvania. You know, the one that took place in the rain. On the day that McCain/Palin cancelled theirs in Pennsylvania… because of the rain. The mavericks!

And that, my friends, is a FOX NEWS headline. Cripes.

One question: if you can’t be bothered to make the effort to show up to your own rally - the last one you’re doing together before election day - how on earth can you, erm, rally other people to your cause?

This from CNN (my bolding):

“The McCain campaign is looking at an Electoral College strategy heading into the final two weeks that has virtually no room for error and depends heavily on a dramatic comeback in Pennsylvania, which hasn’t backed a Republican for president in 20 years.

While Iowa, New Mexico and Colorado are still officially listed as McCain target states, two top strategists and advisers tell CNN that the situation in those states looks increasingly bleak. Iowa and New Mexico always have been viewed as difficult races, but the similar assessment of Colorado reflects a dramatic shift for a campaign that had long counted on the state.

“Gone,” was the word one top McCain insider used to describe those three states.

This source said while the polls in Colorado remain close, he and most others in the operation were of the opinion that the Obama campaign and its allies have a far superior ground/turnout operation and “most of us have a hard time counting on Colorado.”"

Joe Biden sits down with Chris Matthews to talk about the campaigns - both Obama’s and McCain’s - including the possibility of McCain bringing up the Ayers issue with Obama at the debate tomorrow night. Incredibly gracious and considered throughout, after a long pause, Biden says that he thinks McCain would regret saying such a thing - and doubts he would actually do it:

I heart Joe Biden. Biden for President! No, wait. It’s the other guy. Ah, well. He’s not too shabby.

From the Politicalwire blog:

“An early look at today’s Diageo/Hotline tracking poll shows Sen. Barack Obama now holds a double-digit lead in key battleground states.

Among registered voters surveyed in Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin and Nevada, Obama tops McCain 50 to 40%. Just a week ago, Obama led 45% to 42%.

Nationwide, Obama leads 47% to 41%.”