Now that we’ve found love what are we gonna do with it?

By nature, I’m a positive, upbeat kinda guy. I smile a lot, I see the silver lining, I not only think the glass is half full but I also enjoy the glass itself. Even if it’s a standard tumbler, it gives me inordinate pleasure.

However, when it comes to elections and election nights I’m the angel of death. Thanks to the Labour party throughout my childhood and young adulthood, and messers Gore and Kerry later, I associate election nights with dream-trampling, vomit-inducing pain and suffering.

In preparation for this, I view tomorrow night not with dread but with total resignation. I won’t be surprised or upset if it all goes wrong because I have already lived every horrendous scenario. Like some uber-negative war-gaming computer, I’ve played out every nightmare scenario through a CNN interactive electoral map. If there is carnage among Obama supporters I will be standing calm, quietly muttering “Knew it” to myself as a tear of lost childhood innocence slides down my cheek.

Luckily, Barack Obama is going to win tomorrow. The rational part of my brain knows this to be true. The polling is far too consistent, the early turnout far too high and the electoral college far too favourable for any other outcome. It may be a little closer than it looks right now – but Obama will be President Elect.

Given the near certainty – please baby Jesus – of the outcome, I want to use this last column to do something that doesn’t seem to be happening very much, and that’s look at what an Obama presidency will be like. As I’m sure many of you are aware, I’m a politics junkie and can’t get enough of the polls, elections and speculation – but it’s easy to lose sight of what it’s all for.

Never has this been more true with Obama. He is by far the best orator of the last 20 years of politics and without doubt one of the two or three most charismatic politicians of this time, period. The problem with this is that it’s easy to forget that it will all amount nothing more than a few uplifting speeches and nice shots of waving barley if the Presidency doesn’t achieve what it’s setting out to do.

So will it?

Of course, it’s completely impossible to predict, and only a blithering moron with an ego problem would try, so… here I go with a few thoughts to stimulate discussion:

Obama will be far more moderate that most of you reading this think or want

This will be partly through necessity and partly through choice. First of all, a clarification: I’m always amazed at how English people even seasoned politics watchers underestimate what left and right wing mean in American politics – so by moderate I mean moderate for America, right wing for here.

All American presidents must be moderate to some degree because they will leave the nation behind if they govern too far from the American centre. Bush has managed it, but only for a brief spell in the heightened circumstances of post 9/11. Obama will make concessions to the right because that’s the reality of the nation he’s seeking to govern (for early indications of this look at his overly hawkish attitude to Afghanistan and his centrist tax plan). He will also do this through choice because he isn’t as liberal as liberals would like to see him. I actually think there’s a good chance that some on the left here and in America will be disappointed by his presidency because it won’t go far enough – but I think that rather than this being a ‘selling out’ it will actually be a reflection of Obama’s attitudes. Ironically, he’s far closer to the Clintons’ centre-left thinking than either of them would admit.

Which leads us on to…

Obama will be a consensus builder

Unlike George W Bush, Obama is unlikely to utter ‘I am the decider’ – his grasp of the English language being far superior. Obama is a consensus builder by nature, education and training. When confronted by a problem his instinct is to consult widely and thoroughly. He has roughly the same number of advisors as most candidates have donors (and interestingly as many donors as most candidates have voters).

This is a good thing and will undoubtedly result in better more pragmatic decisions. I think it will also result in some Republicans in the cabinet and the odd disgruntled liberal.

America will do less wars

Obviously it would be difficult for it to do more but it seems pretty clear Obama’s first instinct is to talk not obliterate. This doesn’t mean he won’t be pulled into an armed conflict – after all he’ll still be duty bound to protect US interests overseas. Also, Biden’s prediction that he’ll be tested may well be on the money; and it will be difficult for Obama and his administration not to overreact to prove themselves. Despite that small danger, we should have a period of not watching America drop bombs.

If he is to change anything he must to it early and quickly

This is the vital aspect to the Obama presidency, and will define whether it can affect change or not. In politics, incoming administrations have a very short window where they can guarantee actually getting anything done. Far too quickly they will be blamed for the problems they inherited, new crises and events will occur and the political re-election cycle will start again.

Obama will inherit a favorable House and Senate and will probably ride a wave of national relief and hope that his election will usher in a new era. He must act quickly to take advantage of this and be bold. The lesson from history is start with the ideas that are least popular and hardest to implement before the general atmosphere of bitterness regains its hold on the populous.

Healthcare will be the legacy

Let’s finish on an upbeat note, as far too much of this has been grim-ish reality: Obama’s best shot at affecting real change in his country is health care. Most Americans are dissatisfied with their health care system and want it to change – even most Republicans agree something has to be done.

Health care is notoriously problematic and full of special interest groups trying to prevent change. It was the rock that Clinton’s first term floundered on. However, the climate for getting something done for all American’s is as favourable as it could be – the new administration will just need to be bold. This more than anything can start to solve the problem of America’s underclass, produce a more civilized country and deliver on Obama’s promise to create real change.

So there we are – you can all now enjoy election night confident in what the next four years will bring.

Being forced to think about the reality of governing is sobering. As an antidote, let’s focus on this: the truly exciting thing about tomorrow night is not the election or the result. It’s that the adventure is just beginning. Obama is an unknown quantity as a president but his potential is almost limitless. At the least we will see the start of a more compassionate, understanding, tolerant age for America and the world at large – and if that is the least we will get, it will be enough.

“I don’t know if you’ve dared to listen to far-right talk radio lately, but I can assure you that they’re not ignoring Senator Obama – or his family. Put it this way: if you only got your news and opinions from talk radio, you’d probably believe that Senator Obama is some kind of foreign-born baby-killing Manchurian Candidate terrorist – if not a sexist uppity black man who, if he loses in November, will incite race riots in every city…

We too-often overlook the influence of far-right talk radio given the overproduced, groomed-monkeys on far-right cable news shows…

Could it be – I don’t know, just a hunch – that the opinions of perhaps a third of all Americans are shaped by FOX News Channel, cable news shows like Morning Joe and, especially, far-right talk radio? Could it be that the lies and blind-patriotism of these far-right propagandists are painting an historic, brilliant, accomplished, patriotic presidential candidate as some kind of Bin Laden meets Farrakhan chimera? 24 hours a day?  In every town in the Union?”

But fear not – because as Cesca brilliantly points out at the end:

“Given the ideological landscape of cable news, talk radio and the nefarious lie-based caricature therein of Obama as a black-power, fetus-crushing Muslim terrorist, why isn’t *John McCain* 20 points ahead in polls?”

Indeed.  I highly recommend reading the full article here – it starts with a brilliant commentary on the, well, commentary surrounding Obama’s two-minute, direct-to-camera ad.

Listening to John McCain’s reasoning yesterday, it’s fascinating to see how he and his team are trying to spin this one. Their argument seems to be: the system is broken; what’s been going on for the past eight years is corrupt and wrong; and we’re going to fix it.

But here’s the thing: MCAIN IS PART OF THE PROBLEM. He and his economic advisors; the neocons who have been running the Bush administration; their lobbyists and friends and fat cat campaign donators. Spinning it to say ‘We’re change!’ is of course the only straw they can hold on to – because they can’t admit to being part of the system which has helped to bring this crisis about in the first place; the system of which they’re an integral, deeply-woven part.

I now realise that one advantage of the British electoral process over the American one is that we vote for parties rather than people. If the ruling party has screwed up, they can’t just stick lipstick a new face on it and say ‘We’re going to change the old government… that’s being run by… erm… us!’. The old system, the old government is simply kicked out. And then sits around for four or five years working out how to fix things so that they can get back into power.

It’s an old adage that ‘opposition parties don’t win elections, governments lose them’ – but I’m increasingly seeing that this doesn’t apply to American politics, because the system just doesn’t allow for such an easy and clear-cut rejection of a failing ruling party. And while it seems incredible that the American people would vote to keep such a failing ruling party in power, I wouldn’t put it past them. *Sigh*. Let’s just hope the Democrats can convince them that no change will come if Mr McCain goes to Washington…

This is all Rove has left:

‘Speaking of getting into Obama’s head, always remember this. This is what all this is about period. It’s all they got:

The most readily identified, most easily stereotyped, and most quickly dismissed figure is an angry black man.’

That’s what that tool Rove and his acolytes are trying to do. It’s the only card they have left. Obama must not let them get their way. If he doesn’t, he doesn’t just win. We have a chance now to defeat the forces of evil that Obama has smoked out of their cubicles.”

Very true. And not only is Obama avoiding falling into this Rovian trap by not getting angry; he may not even have to in order to win. At the rate they’re currently going, I wouldn’t be surprised if John McCain and Sarah Palin hang themselves with their own rope*.

*This is, of course, a metaphor, in the same way that ‘lipstick on a pig’ is.