England for Obama

According to Nate Silver at Fivethirtyeight, that is. And he does sort of know what he’s talking about. Nate also warns against trusting the exit polls:

Chris Matthews and Chuck Todd show us what to look for as the results come in. And it’s pretty exciting stuff already - just watch:

(Take a look at our round-up of election night top tips, too)

Chuck Todd looks at the latest list of battleground states - Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, Montana and North Dakota - as well as the race for House and Senate seats:

Yes, you too can be Peter Snow! Or rather: John King. Or Chuck Todd.

TPM’s handy closing times map shows you which states will be called when. Some key times/states (ie when their polls close and they’ll start calling them - UK time) are:

11pm - Indiana, Kentucky

12am - Florida (some), Georgia, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia

12.30am - North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia

1am - lots, including Pennsylvania, Montana, Missouri and North Dakota

2am - lots, including Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Minnesota

3am - several, including Nevada and Iowa

4am - California, Oregon and Washington

5am - Alaska

According to polling guru Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com, the five states to watch are Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado and Nevada. “Essentially all relevant electoral scenarios involve some combination of these five states,” he writes here.

Chuck Todd gives his state-by-state guide here - while MSNBC also has a very useful piece on what to look for as the results start coming in. For example:

“7pm… Pay particular attention to Indiana and Virginia… You can posit to the party-goers that they are in for a Democratic “wave” if NBC News projects that Sen. Barack Obama has won Indiana and Virginia… But if the night begins with a McCain win in Virginia, then it’s shaping up as a longer night than most Democrats expect (read: If you’re a Dem, now’s the time you may want to switch from beer to coffee)…

At 7:30 p.m., North Carolina and Ohio polls close. At the simplest level it’s hard to devise a plausible scenario in which McCain loses Ohio and still manages to win the presidency. Based on recent polling, the current electoral math just doesn’t add up for McCain without a win in Ohio. Similarly, an Obama victory in North Carolina would seem to seal McCain’s fate…

8pm: A McCain win in Pennsylvania would defy expectations. It would also signal polling there at the start of this week was either wrong or outdated. And if polling was wrong there, where else was it wrong?

9pm… Also closing at 9 is Colorado. If the presidential race is still up in the air, the outcome could hinge on Colorado…”

And so on. You get the idea. Highly useful, and I may well just print out a copy to crib on the bus as I head into town for the election night party…

Here was Chucky on Meet The Press this morning:

Here’s how it’s looking, according to Chuck Todd and his amazing technicolour dream map. Which he’s scribbled on, like a naughty child:

Do you suppose he’ll shave that beard off once the election is over?

…Keith Olbermann takes a look at the polls, and the state of the two campaigns right now:

See what I did there? The whole American-style comma thing in the headline?

A new LA Times/Bloomberg poll gives Barack a decent lead in both Florida and Ohio:

“Barack Obama is leading Republican presidential rival John McCain in two battleground states…

In Ohio, a state that has been battered for years by unemployment and plant closings, the Democrat is leading McCain, 49% to 40%, among people likely to vote.

In Florida, a state that was considered a likely win for Republicans not long ago, McCain is trailing, 50% to 43%.

In both states, Obama has opened commanding leads over McCain among women, young people, first-time voters, and blacks and other minorities.”

The pundits on Meet The Press talk about the battleground states, and the current electoral map. The money shot, as they say, is 4:12-4:37.

(Note the new drinking game phrase of this election: that John McCain’s story is like a Shakespearean tragedy).

A latest look at where the states stand, with Keith Olbermann and Chuck Todd:

And meanwhile, Obama has overtaken McCain in Georgia. Yes, Georgia.