England for Obama

Over on Talking Points Memo, reader articleman nicely sums up the ways in which Barack Obama won Friday night’s debate:

“First, he won by not losing.  That sounds stupid but it’s not.  He’s up five points in the trackers, and the foreign policy debate is a road game.  Obama didn’t lose.  He made no gaffes, he did not commit to the bailout, he showed heft in foreign policy and gave no ground, he seemed Presidential, the commentariat thought it tight, with some giving it to him narrowly, some narrowly to McCain.

Second, the snap polls show he won, which will drive the media narrative.  CBS’s snap poll of undecideds show them 40-22 for Obama, with 38 as a tie.  CNN says 51-38 for Obama.  If you look at historical evidence, such as Ford’s Poland gaffe in 1976, or the Dukakis’ rape/murder answer in 1988, the perception of winning in the media drives the later move in public opinion more than the underlying event does in the first place.  This matters.

Third, Obama won on effect, because McCain looked nasty.  Obama smiled like a human being; McCain did not.  Obama said some positive things about McCain; McCain said none about Obama.  The scolds in past Presidential debates?  Nixon, Carter, Mondale, Gore.  Add McCain.  The sunnier?  Kennedy, Reagan, Bush43 in 2000, Obama.

Fourth, and let’s not pretend it’s first, Obama won because he did well on the issues.  Obama went harder at the economy than McCain did, and successfully linked his economic priorities to a strong foreign policy.  Obama and McCain spoke from deep conviction about Iraq, but the American people agree preponderantly with Obama that the war was a mistake they’d like ended.  Obama had the moment of the night, telling McCain “you were wrong” in a litany of Iraq misjudgments.

McCain saying that Obama lacked the “knowledge and judgment” to be the President, which drew a mature chuckle from Obama, was the coup-de-grace, albeit self-administered.  McCain was nasty and contemptuous, and half of the American people presently disagree with McCain’s assertion.  Apparently McCain views them as stupid and lacking in judgment too.  Like his pick of Palin, the gibe is polarizing and a call to pick sides.  This isn’t a year for that party and its base to drive both bases in that way.”

And here are my two favourite comments posted by readers on TPM this weekend:

“McCain’s demeanor last night will alienate many voters in these four groups:
1. WOMEN: We know what it’s like to be dismissed and condescended to.
2: OLDER VOTERS: It was just plain (I keep typing ‘palin”!) rude.
3: BLACKS: We’re not good enough to be even looked at??
4: YOUNG VOTERS: Experience is all so we are dismissed and our opinion doesn’t count.”

and

“After reading through the many of the comments here and there, I think my 10 year old son said it best: McCain just seemed like a rude, angry man and Obama was polite and answered the questions. For the average voter, I think this is the impression that will stick.”