Superdelegates won’t be fooled by Hillary’s bogus accounting
Hillary Clinton’s campaign has lost no time trying to frame her victory in the Pennsylvania primary in terms which might appeal to superdelegates. She has to, because her win yesterday does little to advance her cause in the delegate race. In fact, before yesterday’s contest she needed to win 66% of the remaining delegates. Now she needs 71%!
That’s why she’s not only ignoring the fact that it is a delegate race, but she’s also having to manufacture a whole new contest and dictating how it has to be interpreted. Hillary’s new contest, indeed the only possible measure she even has an outside chance of claiming legitimacy with, is the popular vote. So today she is claiming to be ahead in the popular vote, and is telling the press this with gusto. It’s nonsense, and here’s why:
Bad contests in, good contests out!
In order for her to claim to be ahead in the popular vote, she first requires Obama’s victories in the State caucuses to be ignored, as if they mean nothing. So she’s striking Iowa; Nevada; Alaska; North Dakota; Washington; Maine; Hawaii; and presumably Obama’s caucus-based victory in Texas off the map!
Next, and this is ironic as well as desperate, she’s including the votes in Florida and Michigan, which did not hold legitimate contests. The Florida primary, as mutually agreed, was not contested by Obama and shouldn’t have been by Clinton either. In Michigan Obama wasn’t even on the ballot, and nor would Clinton’s if she had kept her pledge.
So, let’s get this straight: If you exclude Obama’s caucus victories but include two non-contests, Hillary is winning? Hmmm…
Currently, to their credit, the media isn’t buying this fanciful accounting. Nor will the superdelegates who will eventually decide the nominee.
What the superdelegates will be looking at is not only who’s winning - and by any real measure that’s Obama by a mile - but also the advantages and disadvantages of each candidate when matched up against John McCain. Nobody so far has summed these up better than Professor Lawrence Lessig, who has made a 10 minute film about it for us, and the superdelegates (shown above).