Forget the polls - turn to the bookies
Ah, the good ol’ British tradition of gambling… Yes, we may not be able to vote in this election - but we can place a bet on it.
And as Keith Thomson writes over at The Huffington Post, the bookmakers are in some ways more accurate predictors of who will win elections:
“Michael Robb, political expert for the British bookmaking site Betfair.com, lets the record speak for itself: Halfway through Election Day in 2004, when a CNN poll showed Kerry taking the lead, Betfair had Bush with a 91% chance to win.
Of course that’s just one election. Probably hundreds of fifth-grade social studies students correctly predicted Bush’s margin of victory to a decimal place, right?
Betfair also had all 50 states right in 2004.
As did rival site Intrade.”
Dammit! If only I’d placed a bet on Barack! Hardly worth it now.
Take a look at Betfair’s current odds on all the states - and other aspects of the election results - here. Interestingly, when it comes down to number of electoral college votes, the shortest odds are on Obama winning 351 or more.
Tags: betfair, betting, gambling, huffington post, keith thomson
November 3rd, 2008 at 12:38 pm
Paddy Power is offering 1-2 on Obama to win NC. I am sorely tempted.
November 3rd, 2008 at 12:38 pm
Howabout GA at 9/4?
November 3rd, 2008 at 12:56 pm
are you feeling lucky, punk?
I must admit I’m a bit thick when it comes to betting. but I reckon NC could be worth a punt - it’s incredibly close there, possibly the closest of all states? (538’s poll of polls puts it at an Obama win of 0.2%).
November 3rd, 2008 at 2:15 pm
I’ve put my money where my mouth is.
Obama to win NC.
£150 at 4/9. It was 1/2 an a hour ago, so odds are shortening. Which is good.
I feel a bit sick.
GA and ND are worth a punt if you are brave.
November 3rd, 2008 at 2:33 pm
ooh well done! that renowned gambler John McCain would be proud of you. or, erm, maybe not…
November 3rd, 2008 at 4:21 pm
Odds have shortened AGAIN - Obama to win NC are now 2-5.
Odds are also lengthening for McC to win ND but they still have him down as winning. So far.
November 3rd, 2008 at 4:32 pm
check out the news from Florida -
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/03/mccains-crowd-disturbingl_n_140412.html