The polls for the Pennsylvania primary close in about an hour and the Obama team is expected to lose. They’ve always expected to lose Pennsylvania but, contrary to what the Clinton camp would have everybody believe, a win is not always win!
Starting with a 20-point advantage, Pennsylvania was always Hillary’s to lose. She has family roots in the state, she has the support of the Democratic establishment - including Governor Rendell’s extensive network - and former President Bill Clinton is still fondly remembered in contrast to Bush.
At the start of the campaign, they were so confident that even one of their own Pennsylvania spokesmen explained to the Washington Post on 7 March that:
“We can build a team here that is unbeatable.”
“Even if the other side runs more television ads or sends more mailings, they can’t beat us on the ground. We’ve got the support of the people that control the infrastructure here in the state. We’ve got that institutional structure that can deliver people on Election Day.”
Clinton started with every advantage. It should have been an easy romp home for her, but instead she had to resort to a “slash and burn” campaign of negative attacks to even stay in the running.
As the campaign has proceeded, and Obama steadily gained in the polls, voices which rightly said that she needs to win, and win big have been drowned out by the Clinton campaign’s more recent spin that “a win is a win”.
This is nonsense.
The contest is a delegate battle and Obama is leading by a huge margin. Delegates are apportioned proportionally based on the vote, so a 10% margin of victory is not the same as, say, a 5% margin. Hillary’s campaign know this to be true, the media know this to be true, the superdelegates know this to be true as well.
Whatever the result in an hour’s time, Hillary Clinton still can not win the nomination without conducting more of her “slash and burn” campaign against Barack Obama. The only question left is: will her shrinking donor base and the superdelegates let her continue to slash and burn, or can the rightful victor of the overall contest start taking on McCain?