England for Obama

Insults hit new low as Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama face showdown

Hillary Clinton accused Barack Obama yesterday of being nothing more than an old-school candidate who had swapped his message of hope for dirty politics, as the Democratic rivals unleashed their most personal attacks yet on the eve of today’s Pennsylvania primary.
TimesOnline.co.uk

Pennsylvania goes to the polls

Democrats in Pennsylvania are heading to the polls in what could be a crucial vote for presidential hopefuls Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.
ITV.com

A Quick Guide to the Pennsylvania Primary

Pennsylvania hasn’t played a pivotal part in a presidential primary since Jimmy Carter’s nomination in 1976.
Alternet.org/election08

Obama Not Predicting Win In Pennsylvania

Hillary Clinton leads Obama in the final Pennsylvania polls – one survey out today has the former first lady leading by seven, while another has her up by 10.
CBSNews.com

PA Primary: Obama, Cinton Battle Over Who’s More Pro-Gun

As the Pennsylvania primary comes to a close, Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are battling for every vote. And with a large number of undecided rural voters to court, the candidates are pushing their own pro-gun credentials.
Huffingtonpost.com

Pennsylvania set for crucial vote

Democrats in the state of Pennsylvania are gearing up to vote in a critical battle between White House hopefuls Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama
news.bbc.co.uk

In my previous article I berated the advertising in Pennsylvania as overly responsive to Clinton’s negative agenda. It’s easy to criticise of course, but I think Obama’s ad buyers should be mindful of the tone adopted by those inspired by Barack Obama, because that inspiration is infectious.

Qasim Basir was so inspired that he sought donations, enlisted the support of other independent film makers, and made three ads. He discusses more about this in this video, but explains that:

“You know they talk a lot about what Barack says about hope, and that it’s not realistic. Whatever they may say regarding that notion, but honestly, I can not think of much right now that this country could use more than hope.”

These are the adverts which the Obama team should be using (but aren’t):

Yes We Can - Housing

Yes We Can - College

Yes We Can - Immigration

Obama’s campaign doesn’t just talk about change, it is change. By building a grass roots political campaign in just six weeks with thousands of volunteers across the State, it’s a a movement which makes Hillary Clinton’s campaign look very ‘old politics’ indeed.

With over 1,300,000+ individual donors nationwide, not taking money from lobbyists and Corporate Political Action Committees (PACs), and even returning the smallest donation if it’s thought to be from either, the Obama team has been able to both outspend and criticise Hillary Clinton’s campaign:

The large numbers of individual donors has swelled the Obama team’s coffers; he raised $41 million in March and had $42 million available to spend in April.

There’s also a very good reason why only Obama was able to hold a the largest rally in the campaign’s history - 35,000 strong. It’s because he can, and Hillary can’t.

Yet despite all this, it is Hillary Clinton’s campaign which, according to their own internal figures, are allegedly leading in Pennsylvania by 11 points. The reason: negative advertising, reinforced by an appallingly biased debate.

The Obama campaign may have spent millions of dollars more in television advertising in the Pennsylvania primary, but Clinton’s negative campaign has used their dollars more destructively. For instance, this last minute Obama ad about healthcare was soon tarnished by a personal attack ad in response by Clinton:

As if in resignation of the Clinton camp’s current ownership of the agenda, the final Obama ad for Pennsylvania also directly addresses the negative Clinton campaign:

That’s a shame, because it’s the exact opposite of what the Obama campaign is really all about. 35,000 people don’t cram together to hear negative attacks, they do it because they are inspired with a positive message of hope and change.

Personally I just hope they will change their advertising.

UPDATE: In the dying hours of the primary Clinton’s campaign aired a new attack ad questioning Obama’s ability to deal with world events as President. Evoking images of the 1929 stock market crash, Pearl Harbor bombing, Cuban missile crisis and long lines for petrol and then to a shot of Osama bin Laden, followed by New Orleans under water, the final question — who “has what it takes?”

Within hours of it’s release, this response ad was aired (yet again confirming the Clinton campaign’s dominance of the agenda right up to polling day):

In a country the size of the United States there is nothing more important to the success of a Presidential campaign than television. Rupert Murdoch understands this to be true, which is why his Sky News here in the UK, and Fox News in the US, only pays lip-service to impartiality, both being dogmatically biased in favour of the conservative viewpoint.

Obama understands this too, which is why he’s flooding the Pennsylvania airwaves with paid advertisements in the run up to the primary. It’s also why televised debates are so important to the democratic process, and until this week there had been twenty such debates between the Democratic candidates, hosted by various networks, which fitted in with this tradition and drawing huge audiences.

The twenty-first debate, this time hosted by ABC, was the first for five weeks, but even before it began there were rumours that it was likely to be a very different debate. With the moderators being an ex-Clinton staffer and a Republican, word leaked on the Internet of a planned hit-job on Obama, with one question even being spoon-fed to a moderator by Fox New’s Sean Hannity (see video below).

The rumours underestimated quite how bad it really was to be though. This was the worst debate ever. Almost the whole of the first hour was devoted to trivial so-called ‘gotcha moments’, mostly aimed at undermining Obama, and at the end of the debate the studio audience booed the moderators, causing one to exclaim “the audience is turning on me!” as they cut to an ad break. After the debate, the ABC website was flooded with thousands of mostly angry and negative comments, and newspapers and other media outlets universally condemned the debate (except for Republican supporting outlets, who fear Obama).

It’s not clear what the motive was for the questioning - the jury is still out as to whether it was a deliberate attempt to damage Obama, or simply a badly judged attempt to bolster ratings by ‘going tabloid’ - but it would appear that the result is that Obama has been hit, at least according to the Gallup daily tracking poll.

Which takes us back to the importance of television to US democracy: If Obama loses the Pennsylvania primary by just a few percent (and it’s not clear from the polls whether the margin will be greater than that or not), the blame can be squarely laid at the door of ABC, its anti-Obama debate moderators, and Clinton’s largely negative campaigning there.

Obama once said that “any time you speak out powerfully for change, the forces of status quo attack,” and it would seem that it’s true, but speaking the day after the debate he had this to say:

(The brushing of the shoulders is a reference to this rap song.) [warning: explicit lyrics]

“She knows better. Shame on her. Shame on her!”

“Let me tell you something, when it comes to finishing a fight, Rocky and I have a lot in common. I never quit. I never give up.”

That’s what Hillary Clinton said today campaigning in Pennsylvania, presumably assuming that the Hollywood image of the tenacious boxer Rocky would resonate with the largely blue-collar demographics of the State’s voters.

This was no unscripted remark though - it was ‘leaked’ in advance to the press - so we can assume that her speech writers will also have noted that Rocky’s opponent was a taller, black man and that the fight “went the distance”, as they say.

What the Clinton campaign team failed to remember was the result.

The classic slugfest between Rocky and his opponent left them both battered and bruised, but the conclusion was a split decision: a draw.

Unfortunately, Rocky, the underdog challenger, has to win to take the title and belt. Under the rules, a draw results in the Champion keeping his prize. As you can see in the still from the film, in this analogy, Obama is declared the winner of the contest!

The next primary is in Pennsylvania in three weeks time. It’s a state almost everybody has already called for Hillary Clinton. Some have even suggested that it will be a big win for Senator Clinton, and that this would provide the necessary momentum to narrow Barack Obama’s delegate lead in the remaining nine contests.

The polls certainly indicated that it would be a huge hurdle for Senator Obama to leap, but a poll today shows that he’s gaining ground as rapidly as he’s touring the state in his battle bus. In fact, the poll indicates that Clinton’s lead has been cut in half, to just a five point advantage (47% to 42%), which must be a deep concern to the Clinton camp.

If the poll is correct, Barack Obama has three weeks to swing 2.5% of Clinton supporters to win the state. That’s remarkable in itself given the double-digit lead Hillary Clinton enjoyed just a couple of weeks ago, but with his past track record and considerably more money to spend it could now be a real possibility.

Three weeks is a very long time in politics, and this is only one poll, but it’s clear that the race to win Pennsylvania is now on. The stakes are very high - an Obama win would be monumental, a Clinton loss perhaps fatal. One thing is certain though: this protracted primary contest is going to be exciting.