A Barack win or another Republican in?
Sunday, February 17th, 2008After a somewhat faltering start, the story of the Democratic Primaries has been the rise and rise of Barack Obama. The presumed nominee at the start of the contest, Hillary Clinton, is now donning the mantle of ‘underdog’ but it doesn’t sit well with her. After a string of defeats and more expected on Tuesday, people are starting to wonder if she really has what it takes to win the White House in November.
That the election is the Democrats to lose is not born out by the polls, but with failure hanging heavily around Hillary’s neck it would be churlish not to expect doubts about her electability to influence future events. It’s a message which Obama is using to great effect:
“I’ve already indicated why I can beat John McCain more effectively than Hillary Clinton can. I think that’s very important. I think I can get more independent votes and more Republican votes, and offset any advantages he may have, and actually succeed. I think Senator Clinton starts off with 47% of the country against her. That’s a hard place to start if you want to win an election,” he explained to a recent rally in Alexandria, VA.
Poll after poll supports this view – a Clinton vs McCain contest in November is projected to be as much a dogfight as the previous two Presidential races, with McCain enjoying a slight advantage. An Obama vs McCain contest however consistently predicts an Obama victory.
Senator Clinton’s problems do not end there though. In an extraordinary contest where her experience is her sharpest weapon, she’s now looking like a loser who couldn’t step up to the challenge of her rival, despite all her advantages. If she can’t do it in the Primaries, what hope does she have in November?
She’s still fighting hard for the nomination though, and Barack Obama’s team is emphasising that the battle is far from won for them. An upset in Wisconsin, which is by no means a guaranteed victory for Obama, could be the lifeline his rival so desperately needs. But it’s Ohio and Texas which she’s called her “firewall”. An Obama victory in either - and Texas does seem to be swinging his way at the moment – could be the final knock out blow, not in delegate counts, but in perception.
It’s still all to play for, but Senator Clinton might perhaps be wise to remember that the previous last ditch stand at the Alamo ended with a massacre.

